Long boom or long fizzle

By Michael Fraase

Wednesday, 08 May 2002 02:51PM CST

Section: Business

One of the gospels of the dot.com boom was Peter Schwartz, Joel Hyatt, and Peter Leyden’s The Long Boom: A Vision for the Coming Age of Prosperity, which—like an alarming number of similar works—actually started out as a Wired article. The technological, fiscal, and political revolutions of the last two decades of the previous millennium would reshape the world as we know it, according to the authors.

Unfortunately, the “revolutions” never really happened, and while technology continues its march to wherever it is that it’s going, the fiscal and political arenas are more corrupt and inhumane than ever. Looking back on The Long Boom, three short years after publication, it reads like a Panglossian fairy tale of what could have—should have—been, had this been the best possible of all worlds. To the authors’ benefit, and likely a result of Schwartz’s experience as a future scenario planner (Schwartz’s The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World is one of the most important business books ever published), the premise of The Long Boom is presented not as prediction, but rather as vision.

And make no mistake. With two glaring exceptions, the authors’ 10 guiding principles are as useful and effective mileposts now as they were then:

  1. Open up
  2. Let go
  3. Always adapt
  4. Keep learning
  5. Value innovation
  6. Get connected
  7. Be inclusive
  8. Stay confident
More...

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