Take a look at this bar chart from the New York Times purporting to show the percentage of interest-only mortgagtes in the US. What’s wrong with this picture is that the ‘05 number, pegged at what appears to be 23%, represents only the first quarter of the year compared to the other bars that represent total years. The New York Times is woefully misleading when it says, “fewer people are turning to riskier interest-only mortgages, which do not reduce a loan’s principal.” That’s not at all what this graphic indicates, and since the Q2 2005 numbers won’t be released until 1 September, there’s no way anyone—including the New York Times—can make such a statement.
To be accurate, the Times should have compared first quarters of the five years it’s reporting on.
This is exactly the kind of chart junk that Edward Tufte has been warning us about for more than two decades. The New York Times should be ashamed of itself.
But the Times is in crowded company. This morning coming out of the shower I heard a gas-bag pundit on CNN—on a program sponsored by a mortgage company, of course—railing about how “the real estate market always comes back; real estate is an appreciating asset.” Stock brokers are required to disclose that past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Why not real estate brokers?