In “When elephants dance” I provided an analysis of the political contribution funding behind the Consumer Broadband and Digital Television Promotion Act (CBDTPA) in the United States Senate.
In order for a bill to become law, companion legislation must be introduced in the House of Representatives, the two bills have to be reconciled, and the President has to sign the final bill into law. And installed President Bush just may be the fly in this particular ointment. Like most conservatives, he sees the entertainment industry as a liberal bastion, remember, and a political force that’s not necessarily aligned with his larger agenda.
As yet there is no companion bill in the House, but we can play a nifty game of Politico Bingo to ascertain who the most likely suspects for authoring it are. All we have to do is follow the money. Which politicians did the entertainment industry throw the most money at during the last few election cycles?
The most likely suspect, based on the 2002 election cycle so far, is clearly Howard Berman (D-California). But the entertainment industry hedged its bet by throwing a good bit of money at Louis Capps (D-California), Jane Harman (D-California), Adam Schiff (D-California), and two non-Californians with big name recognition: Edward Markey (D-Massachusetts) and Richard Gephardt (D-Missouri).
The House, because of its larger populace and shorter terms, isn't as safe a bet as the Senate. Nonetheless, a clear pattern emerges.
| Representative | 2002 | 2000 | 1998 | 1996 | Total |
| Howard Berman (D-California) | $144,541 | $148,048 | $102,807 | $67,400 | $462,796 |
| Richard Gephardt (D-Missouri) | $35,000 | $57,499 | $139,297 | N/A | $231,796 |
| Louis Capps (D-California) | $10,500 | $83,687 | $86,866 | N/A | $181,053 |
| Edward Markey (D-Massachusetts) | $30,000 | $35,800 | $28,750 | $72,800 | $167,350 |
| Jane Harman (D-California) | $29,750 | $65,900 | N/A | $50,550 | $146,200 |
| Adam Schiff (D-California) | $19,435 | $74,841 | N/A | N/A | $94,276 |
| Total as of 20 March 2002 | $1,283,471 | ||||
Remember that the 2002 election cycle isn't over and a dark horse could appear, but it's clear that Howard Berman is the water-carrier for the entertainment industry in the House of Representatives. The smart money says he'll be the primary author of the House's CBDTPA equivalent bill, possibly as early as next week. The long-shots would be Jane Harman or Adam Schiff, but their track record for holding their seats isn't the best. All of those would be too obvious. My money's on Rupert's friend, Edward Markey.
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